Among both professional and amateur astronomers, Apophis is perhaps the most infamous asteroid.
If you’ve heard of Apophis, it’s likely due to its initial reputation as a potentially hazardous space rock speeding too close for comfort toward Earth when it was discovered two decades ago. At the time, it was feared that the asteroid might pose a serious threat to our planet in the future.
However, astronomers now assure us that this threat won’t materialize for at least 100 years. Not even during its closest approach to Earth in 2029—an event that will be the closest any known asteroid of its size has come to our planet—will Apophis pose a danger.
Further observations of Apophis have led astronomers to confidently rule out the risk of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to pass within 10 times the distance between Earth and the Moon, according to NASA. It also poses no threat during its subsequent close approach in 2036.
Although we and future generations are safe from Apophis, scientists view this as a valuable opportunity to study the asteroid. By examining Apophis as it passes by Earth, researchers aim to gain insights that could help us better understand and prepare for other space rocks that might pose a real threat in the future.
Further observations of Apophis have led astronomers to confidently rule out the risk of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to pass within 10 times the distance between Earth and the Moon, according to NASA. It also poses no threat during its subsequent close approach in 2036.
Apophis is expected to come within 20,000 miles of Earth's surface on April 13, 2029.
For those who are superstitious, it’s worth noting that this date falls on a Friday.
On that day, Apophis will be closer to Earth than telecommunications satellites in geostationary orbit, according to the ESA.
During its close approach to Earth, Apophis will be visible from the Eastern hemisphere, including Europe, Africa, and western Asia. It will appear as a bright streak across the sky, resembling a fast-moving star.
As it passes near Earth, the planet's gravity will exert significant influence on Apophis, causing the asteroid to be squeezed and distorted, with one side being pulled more strongly toward Earth than the other. While this will have no impact on Earth itself, the ESA notes that Apophis may experience internal quakes and landslides as a result.
Will Apophis hit Earth?
In brief, no—at least not within our lifetimes.
Although Apophis is classified as a near-Earth asteroid due to its orbit bringing it within 30 million miles of our planet, it poses no threat.
When Apophis was first discovered in 2004, it was considered one of the most hazardous asteroids with potential for an Earth impact. However, ongoing observations and tracking have updated this assessment, and astronomers now understand that Apophis will not pose a danger.
Space agencies and scientific institutes worldwide are preparing to use the rare flyby of Apophis to study the asteroid both from the ground and through spacecraft.
NASA’s OSIRIS-REx, which recently returned a sample from asteroid Bennu in September, has been rebranded as OSIRIS-APophis EXplorer (OSIRIS-APEX). This spacecraft is set on a trajectory that will intersect with Apophis in 2029. When it reaches the asteroid in June of that year, OSIRIS-APEX will spend 18 months mapping Apophis’s surface and analyzing its chemical composition, according to NASA.
Earth-based telescopes will also monitor Apophis, but they will not capture as much detail as the spacecraft will when the asteroid nears the Sun, according to NASA. Unlike the Bennu mission, however, OSIRIS-APEX will not collect samples from Apophis.
The European Space Agency, NASA's counterpart, plans to launch its own spacecraft named Ramses to study the asteroid.
The Ramses spacecraft, which must be prepared a year in advance, will rendezvous with Apophis before its close approach to Earth and follow the asteroid as it leaves our orbit. During this period, the mission will observe how Apophis's surface changes due to its proximity to Earth, according to the European Space Agency's announcement in July.
This mission is part of broader efforts by NASA and other space agencies to safeguard humanity from threats posed by asteroids and other space objects, including comets.
In September 2022, NASA deliberately crashed a spacecraft into the small asteroid Dimorphos at about 14,000 mph.
Although Dimorphos posed no danger to Earth, the mission was the inaugural test of NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART). The DART method is designed to be a critical tool for deflecting and altering the trajectory of an asteroid if it were ever on a collision course with our planet, according to NASA.
To assess preparedness for defending Earth against space objects, NASA has conducted a series of exercises, with the fifth and most recent taking place in April and its results released in June. This exercise was notable for including approximately 100 international government representatives who collaborated on a hypothetical scenario involving an incoming asteroid.
The exercise was organized by NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, established in 2016 to track near-Earth objects that might pose a collision risk.
In addition, NASA is developing the NEO Surveyor, an asteroid-hunting telescope aimed at detecting near-Earth objects that could cause substantial damage. Scheduled to launch no earlier than June 2028, the telescope is designed to identify 90% of asteroids and comets measuring 460 feet or larger that come within 30 million miles of Earth's orbit.
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